Weather modeling

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with Boston Globe reporter Ken Mahan about how a disrupted polar vortex (PV) could impact weather in the United States in the coming weeks. “The PV has been doing its best Mr. Fantastic impression, stretching and compressing continuously,” allowing frigid air to escape southward, Cohen explains. “If we (New England) do receive colder weather, but not quite the cold we experienced in late January, again from this larger PV disruption, it will be either late February and early March.”  

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with USA Today reporter Doyle Rice about how the polar vortex and cold Siberian air could impact weather across the U.S. in February. Cohen noted that some of the cold weather being felt on the East Coast of the U.S. is "coming from Siberia and that is contributing to the extremity of the cold since Siberia is the source of the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere in winter.”

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with New York Times reporter Eric Niiler about his work linking increased severe winter weather in the United States to the stretching of the polar vortex. “We’ve shown in multiple papers now that the occurrence of the weak polar vortex is increasing in frequency, and the times when the polar vortex is strong or circular it’s happening less frequently,” says Cohen. 

In an interview with Gizmodo reporter Ellyn Lapointe, Research Scientist Judah Cohen highlights his work understanding the “complex relationship between global climate change, polar vortex behavior, and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Cohen explains that: “In our research, we have demonstrated that polar vortex stretching events have accelerated in the era of accelerated Arctic change. Climate change in general, but Arctic change in particular, is favorable for forcing these events. 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen explores the relationship between stretched polar vortex events and extreme weather in the United States, reports Andrew Freedman for CNN. “On the southern flanks of the polar vortex, over the US and Asia, and under that where that stretching is happening, there’s been an increase in severe winter weather,” says Cohen. “I’m not saying any one weather event is attributed to climate change, but I do think it loaded the dice here.”

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with Associated Press reporter Caleigh Wells to explain how winter storm conditions can vary geographically. Farther south, “the snowflakes form, they fall and then they meet a warm layer, a layer above freezing, and they will melt,” explains Cohen. “But then there’s another layer near the surface that’s below freezing again, so they will refreeze before they hit the ground.” 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with Associated Press reporter Seth Borenstein about how warm Arctic waters and cold continental land have led to a stretched polar vortex, leading to a massive winter storm that will impact a large swath of the country. According to Cohen, “as far back as October 2025, changes in the Arctic and low sea ice were setting up conditions for the kind of stretched polar vortex that brings severe winter weather to the U.S.,” writes Borenstein. 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with USA Today reporter Doyle Rice about how the polar vortex could send a blast over cold air to areas of the central and eastern United States. “I believe that the entire cycle of a weak or disrupted polar vortex that began at the end of November is coming to its conclusion by the end of next week,” explains Cohen. “Clearly, the polar vortex is strengthening and some period of milder weather in the central and eastern U.S. looks inevitable to me.”  

Research Scientist Judah Cohen shares his thoughts on how the polar vortex will impact weather across the U.S. this December, reports Doyle Rice for USA Today. "My thinking is that the cold the first week of December is the appetizer and the main course will be in mid-December," Cohen explains. 

Researchers from MIT have discovered that integrating “Texas’ self-contained electrical grid with the broader national grid could prevent mass power outages,” reports Zack Budryk for The Hill. The researchers “modeled the effects of a bill introduced by Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) that would connect the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to the rest of the country,” explains Budryk. “They determined that if such a law had been enacted ahead of the 2021 event, Winter Storm Uri, up to 80 percent of the millions of blackouts caused by the storm could have been averted.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with Living on Earth host Jenni Doering about the future of extreme weather forecasting. “We have to do a much better job projecting long term risk, and how that's changing as the climate changes so that people can make intelligent decisions about where they're going to live, what they're going to build, and so on,” says Emanuel. “We need better models, we need better computers, so that we can resolve the atmosphere better, we need to make better measurements of the ocean below the surface, that's really tough to do.”

Writing for Fast Company, Visiting Scientist Priya Donti examines how “scientists are increasingly looking to AI to help us predict the weather, and some of the most promising approaches come from blending AI with existing scientific knowledge.” Donti notes that a “combination of innovative technology and human wisdom is the best way to harness AI to help us tackle the challenges of the future, especially climate change.”

Researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that flooding events will become much more common by the end of the century, especially in New England, reports Evan Bush for NBC. “The researchers used computer modeling to stimulate thousands of ‘synthetic’ hurricanes toward the end of this century and in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are very high,” writes Bush.

Popular Science reporter Kendra Pierre-Louis writes about Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s research showing that climate change could make it harder to predict the intensity of hurricanes. “Storm intensity matters, because a weak storm might just mean staying home for the day, while a strong storm may require evacuation,” Pierre-Louis explains. 

Brian Sullivan writes for Bloomberg about research affiliate Judah Cohen’s “Siberian Snow Theory,” which is based on the concept that the amount of snow covering the ground in northern Eurasia can be used to predict how cold winter will be in the northern hemisphere. Sullivan writes that Cohen “spies all the makings of an early, cold winter,” this year.