Natural disasters

Researchers at MIT have found that up to 98% of the energy produced by an earthquake dissipates as heat, reports Stephanie Pappas for Scientific American, who notes that the findings could be used to help create better earthquake forecasts. The researchers “created itty-bitty lab earthquakes by pressing centimeter-sized wafers of a powdered granite and magnetic particle mixture between aluminum pistons until the wafers slipped or snapped,” explains Pappas. “They measured this process of cracking under stress with thermometers and piezoelectric sensors that mimic the seismographs used to measure real earthquakes.” 

Researchers at MIT have created “a series of miniature, controlled versions of real earthquakes to see where all that destructive energy actually goes and what it’s doing,” reports Luis Prada for Vice. “The goal of the research is to isolate the key physical processes that underlie every earthquake,” explains Prada. “The hope is that any knowledge gained will help refine earthquake prediction models and possibly even pinpoint which regions are sitting on fault lines ready to pop.” 

Gizmodo reporter Gayoung Lee writes that MIT researchers created “lab quakes” or miniature versions of earthquakes in a controlled setting and found that “anywhere between 68 and 98% of the energy goes into generating heat around a quake’s epicenter.” The findings “could help inform the creation of a physical model for earthquake dynamics or seismologists’ efforts to pick out regions most vulnerable to earthquakes.”

Writing for Physics Today, Prof. Camilla Cattania and her colleagues highlight the impact of big data and AI advancements in improving the reliability of earthquake forecasting and prediction. “Advances in technology and data analysis, particularly the incorporation of AI techniques, are driving the development of more-sophisticated forecasting models,” they write. “Advances in sensor technology and the expansion of dense seismic networks are providing new insight into the dynamics of Earth’s crust. That wealth of data enables the creation of more detailed and nuanced forecasting models that better capture the complexities of earthquake processes.”

Prof. Emeritus Kerry Emanuel speaks with WBUR reporters Vivian La and Barbara Moran about the impact of NOAA cuts on the future of weather forecasting. “They're cutting into bone and muscle when they should be cutting into fat,” says Emanuel. He adds that streamlining operations and saving money “requires deep understanding of the organization and deep consultation with people who understand it.”

Researchers at MIT have developed “Clio,” a new technique that “enables robots to make intuitive, task-relevant decisions,” reports Jennifer Kite-Powell for Forbes. The team’s new approach allows “a robot to quickly map a scene and identify the items they need to complete a given set of tasks,” writes Kite-Powell. 

Prof. David Rand speaks with Scientific American reporter Ben Guarino about why misinformation can spread so easily following a natural disaster like Hurricane Helene. “Disasters are ripe for conspiracy theories because there is a lot of uncertainty as things are unfolding and a lot of fear,” explains Rand. 

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with Associated Press reporter Terry Spencer about Tampa Bay’s vulnerability to incoming hurricanes. “It’s a huge population,” explains Emanuel. “It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition. I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.” 

Researchers at MIT have developed a new method that “enables robots to intuitively identify relevant areas of a scene based on specific tasks,” reports Baba Tamim for Interesting Engineering. “The tech adopts a distinctive strategy to make robots effective and efficient at sorting a cluttered environment, such as finding a specific brand of mustard on a messy kitchen counter,” explains Tamim. 

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with Washington Post reporters Sarah Kaplan, Shannon Osaka and Dan Stillman about the future of hurricane forecasting. “This is one thing that scares me, if these things can intensify more rapidly,” says Emanuel. “We’re going to have cases where forecasters go to bed with a tropical storm and wake up with a Category 5 when it’s too late to evacuate people.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with New York Times reporter Christopher Kuo about the expectations for the upcoming hurricane season. When discussing Hurricane Beryl, Emanuel says “usually the June and July storms are relatively benign. They don’t get up to full strength, so it’s very rare to have this.” 

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with Scientific American reporter Chelsea Harvey about the future of hurricane forecasting and preparations. “I can’t predict the future, but I’m optimistic that things will get better,” says Emanuel. “And you’ll see people moving away from risky places, which is already beginning to happen. And those who elect to stay [will be] paying a lot of insurance or retrofitting houses to be built stronger.”

Science reporter Paul Voosen spotlights Tropics “a four-CubeSat mission launched by NASA last year” and led by Lincoln Laboratory Fellow William (Bill) Blackwell. The mission has “yielded unprecedented observations of the evolution of hurricanes cores,” writes Voosen. 

Researchers from MIT have discovered that integrating “Texas’ self-contained electrical grid with the broader national grid could prevent mass power outages,” reports Zack Budryk for The Hill. The researchers “modeled the effects of a bill introduced by Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) that would connect the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to the rest of the country,” explains Budryk. “They determined that if such a law had been enacted ahead of the 2021 event, Winter Storm Uri, up to 80 percent of the millions of blackouts caused by the storm could have been averted.”

BBC Science Focus reporter Alex Hughes spotlights a new study by MIT scientists that suggests more heavy snowfall and rain linked to climate change could increasingly contribute to earthquakes worldwide. “The researchers made these conclusions based on how weather patterns in northern Japan have seemingly contributed to a new 'swarm' of earthquakes,” writes Hughes, “a pattern of multiple, ongoing quakes – that is thought to have begun in 2020.”