International relations

Writing for Foreign Affairs, Prof. M. Taylor Fravel examines the suggestion that China’s economic downturn could lead to war. “Chinese leaders have rarely, if ever, started a conflict purely as a diversion, even during moments of domestic crisis,” writes Fravel. “When the Chinese economy falters, the danger is not diversionary war. It is that China’s leaders will feel weak and become more sensitive to external challenges, potentially lashing out to show strength and deter other countries from taking advantage of their insecurity.”

In an article for Foreign Policy, Prof. Malick W. Ghachem writes about the current political situation in Haiti and the type of international support the country actually needs. “Haiti needs genuine reconstruction, and these strategies can help the country find its financial footing as it seeks to rebuild its political institutions,” says Ghachem. “A concerted international campaign to support Haiti’s financial sovereignty is the real intervention that Haiti needs—and possibly the only one.”

Writing for The Los Angeles Times, Prof. Simon Johnson and Oleg Ustenko, economic advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, emphasize that “the governments of poorer countries need to demand that Ukrainian grain be allowed to flow freely. The Black Sea corridor must be reopened and kept open as a top priority for all parties working to defeat Putin.”

A new study co-authored by MIT scientists finds that the Department of Justice’s China Initiative may have caused researchers of Chinese descent to leave the U.S. for China, reports Ryan Quinn for Inside Higher Ed. The study authors found that researchers of Chinese descent had “general feelings of fear and anxiety that lead them to consider leaving the United States and/or stop applying for federal grants. If the situation is not corrected, American science will likely suffer the loss of scientific talent to China and other countries.”

Neil Thompson, director of the FutureTech research project at MIT CSAIL and a principal investigator MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy, speaks with Politico reporter Mohar Chatterjee about generative AI, the pace of computer progress and the need for the U.S. to invest more in developing the future of computing. “We need to make sure we have good secure factories that can produce cutting-edge semiconductors,” says Thompson. “The CHIPS Act covers that. And people are starting to invest in some of these post-CMOS technologies — but it just needs to be much more. These are incredibly important technologies.”

Writing for Science, the MIT China Strategy Group explores how U.S. universities can manage the pressures posed by rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, outlining the approach they developed to “help MIT advance knowledge and the needs of the United States and the world -- without damaging U.S. interests in national security or the economy, without endangering human rights, and in ways consistent with the core values of our institution.” 

Principal Research Scientist Eric Heginbotham writes for Newsweek that in simulations of a possible invasion of Taiwan, he and his colleagues found that “China would lose—so long as the United States continues to invest in maintaining deterrence and chooses to intervene directly and vigorously.” Heginbotham adds: “The United States should ensure that the political relationship with China remains positive in those areas that do not directly compromise America's position and — consistent with U.S. policy for half a century—that avoid promoting de jure independence for Taiwan.”

Prof. M. Taylor Fravel speaks with Bloomberg News reporter Iain Marlow about the U.S. - China relationship. “I do not expect U.S. - China relations to improve,” said Fravel. “The only question is how much further they will deteriorate and if the relationship will shift from one of competition to one of hostile confrontation.” 

At MIT’s AI Policy Forum Summit, which was focused on exploring the challenges facing the implementation of AI technologies across a variety of sectors, SEC Chair Gary Gensler and MIT Schwarzman College of Computing Dean Daniel Huttenlocher discussed the impact of AI on the world of finance. “If someone is relying on open-AI, that's a concentrated risk and a lot of fintech companies can build on top of it,” Gensler said. “Then you have a node that's every bit as systemically relevant as maybe a stock exchange."

Writing for The Los Angeles Times, Prof. Simon Johnson and Łukasz Rachel, a research fellow at Princeton University, make the case for implementing a price cap on the cost of Russian oil. “This price cap scheme could run alongside the phase-in of a full EU embargo,” they write. “If the coalition involves non-EU countries, this arrangement will guarantee that Putin receives less money for his oil even after the EU ban kicks in.”

In an article for The Hill, Prof. Emeritus Henry Jacoby writes that “government agencies, even as they act to protect U.S. interests, need to try to maintain conditions favorable for international climate research efforts.”

Writing for The Los Angeles Times, Prof. Simon Johnson makes the case for imposing more stringent sanctions on Russia. “The war crimes committed by Russian forces at Bucha in Ukraine have brought greater clarity to economic sanctions,” writes Johnson. “What is in place now is insufficient and needs to be expanded.”

Writing for The New York Times, Steven Simon, a fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies, and Jonathan Stevenson of the International Institute for Strategic Studies explore the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s nuclear threats. “The United States and NATO should be less deferential to Mr. Putin’s attempt to wield the threat of nuclear weapons,” they write, “not only for the sake of supporting Ukraine but also to ensure global geopolitical stability in the future.”

Daleep Singh, an MIT alumnus and the United States Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, speaks with CBS journalist Sharyn Alfonsi about the economic sanctions being used to combat Russia’s attack on Ukraine. “In this century, our view is power is much more closely tied to your economic strength, technological sophistication, and your story,” says Singh.

Prof. Jonathan Gruber speaks with Boston Public Radio about the economics of sanctions and whether they have been an effective tool to deter Russia's invasion of Ukraine. “The integrated world economy has made these sanctions so much more powerful,” says Gruber. “The real test is will they eventually work to bring [Putin] to heel over the longer run.”