Hurricanes

Researchers from MIT’s Lincoln Lab and NASA are working on the TROPICS research mission, an effort to collect meteorological data from miniature satellites on how and why certain tropical storms intensify as they approach land, reports Daniel Cusick for Scientific American. “Scientists will observe temperature profiles in space that would be favorable to storm formation at the Earth’s surface, then use a weather prediction model and radiometric imagery to better predict how such storms would behave,” writes Cusick.

Prof. Kerry Emanuel and First Street Foundation have found that based on warming climate conditions and patterns, future storms will increase in intensity and travel farther north up the East Coast, reports Leslie Kaufman and Eric Roston for Bloomberg.

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with CNN reporters Ella Nilsen and Renée Rigdon about future hurricane trends. “The bottom line is the models that are being used by the existing [catastrophe] modeling industry are based strictly on historical statistics,” says Emanuel. “The historical record isn’t very long, and it isn’t very good when you get back to before 1970.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel discusses the impact climate change has on hurricanes, reports Robinson Meyer for The Atlantic. “First of all, you can have more intense hurricanes in a warmer climate. That finding goes back well over 30 years now,” says Emanuel. “For that reason we expect to see more of the highest-category storms—the Cat 3s, Cat 4s, Cat 5s, more of the Ian-style storms.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with Newsweek reporter Pandora Dewan about Hurricane Ian and its correlation to climate change, reports Pandora Dewan for Newsweek. “What worries people in my profession is the confluence of two trends," says Emanuel. "One is demographic, one is nature. The number of people exposed to hurricanes has tripled since 1970 [as] people are moving in droves to hurricane-prone regions. Then the climate is changing, and that is demonstrably increasing the incidence of high-end storms like Ian."

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with AP reporter Seth Borenstein about the upcoming hurricane season and his research showing an increase in Atlantic storms over the past 150 years.

Researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that flooding events will become much more common by the end of the century, especially in New England, reports Evan Bush for NBC. “The researchers used computer modeling to stimulate thousands of ‘synthetic’ hurricanes toward the end of this century and in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are very high,” writes Bush.

Reuters reporter Andrea Januta writes that using computer models Prof. Kerry Emanuel has found that hurricanes in the North Atlantic have been growing in intensity and frequency as global temperatures have increasing. Emanuel “turned to computer simulations to recreate climate conditions for the last 150 years. Using three different climate models, he then scattered hurricane “seeds,” or conditions that could produce a storm, throughout the models to see how many seeds developed into storms,” writes Januta.

A new study by Prof. Kerry Emanuel examining the history of hurricanes finds that North Atlantic hurricanes are increasing in frequency and intensity, write Matthew Cappucci and Jason Samenow for The Washington Post. Emanuel “employed a novel approach to evaluate past storm activity,” they write. “Rather than relying on historical observations, which may have gaps, he performed climate modeling to reconstruct a continuous record of hurricane activity over the past 150 years from which to gauge trends.”

Prof. Kerry Emanuel discusses how climate change impacts the rapid intensification of storms like Hurricane Ida with Washington Post reporter Sarah Kaplan. “This is exactly the kind of thing we’re going to have to get used to as the planet warms," says Emanuel.

Prof. Kerry Emanuel speaks with New York Times reporter Veronica Perrey about the impact of climate change on hurricanes. “Potential intensity is going up,” says Emanuel. “We predicted it would go up 30 years ago, and the observations show it going up.”

Writing for The Guardian, Jeff Nesbit highlights Prof. Kerry Emanuel’s research showing that climate change is increasing the risk of extreme storms. Nesbit explains that Emanuel found that the risk for extreme storms in Tampa, Cairns, and the Persian Gulf increased by up to a factor of 14 over time as Earth’s climate changed.

Writing for NOVA Next, Nafisa Syed highlights how Prof. Kerry Emanuel is working on creating a new risk assessment paradigm for severe weather events like Hurricane Florence. Syed writes that Emanuel is trying to “understand what, for example, a 100-year storm is going to look like in the year 2100.”

Writing for HuffPost, Michael Windle and Tim Russell of the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics say the U.S. can better serve survivors of disasters like Hurricane Maria by offering more permanent opportunities to relocate. “Survivors should be able to choose between programs geared to returning and rebuilding, and those providing permanent relocation services,” urge the researchers.

NBC Mach’s Denise Chow discusses the upcoming hurricane season with Prof. Kerry Emanuel. “The sea level is going up, and it's almost certainly going to continue to go up,” explains Emanuel. “Even if the storms themselves don’t change, the surges are riding on an elevated sea level, and that makes them more dangerous.”