Climate

MIT researchers have developed the Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) tool, which “uses machine learning to identify systematic bias in a model and make corrections” to improve weather forecasts, reports The Verge’s Justine Calma. “The researchers found that PBC improved the accuracy of a leading physics-based weather model by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for 98 percent of precipitation and 92 percent of temperature targets,” notes Calma. “The machine learning framework also doubled the accuracy of ECMWF’s new AI forecasting system in the study’s analysis.” 

Gizmodo’s Ellyn Lapointe spotlights the Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) tool developed by MIT researchers to “correct systemic errors in forecast models and improve the accuracy of their subseasonal outlooks.” “Extreme weather has the largest impact on our society and improved forecasts of these events can yield large societal benefits,” says Research Scientist Judah Cohen. “Interestingly, previous bias correction schemes actually made forecasts of extreme weather worse, and our model showed clear improvement of extreme weather forecasts.”  

MIT researchers have developed an AI system “that not only minimizes forecasting errors, but learns from its inevitable mistakes through a method called postprocessing,” writes reporter Andrew Paul for Popular Science. “Their AI postprocessing integration blew the existing forecasting models out of the water,” notes Paul. “Such massive improvements could soon help the farmers and energy providers who already rely on subseasonal forecasts, but the benefits may even save lives.” 

MIT startup Alsym Energy, cofounded by Prof. Kripa Varanasi, has developed an alternative to lithium-ion batteries using sodium ions, writes Morgan Clendaniel for Fast Company. “The battery is nonflammable and nontoxic, allowing it to be placed in more sensitive areas and saving money on cooling systems that often have to be co-installed with large lithium batteries,” explains Clendaniel.  

Joe Romm ‘82, PhD ‘87, “a physicist by training who became one of the most influential voices in the debate over climate change and how to stop it, using his blog to provide deep-dive insights and sharp-elbowed critiques,” died on Sept. 14, reports Clay Risen for The New York Times. “There’s nobody else like Joe Romm,” says Michael Mann, Romm’s colleague at the Penn Center. “There’s nobody else who brought all of these interlocking talents and proclivities together in the way that he did. That gave him such a unique voice, and it’s a voice that we sorely could use today.” 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks to USA Today’s Doyle Rice, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Janet Loehrke about the intensity of the polar vortex this year, and his predictions on what sort of weather the upcoming winter season will bring across the country. “The polar vortex is no longer record strong (signaling a milder winter) and it is actually a bit weaker than normal as it is undergoing a polar vortex stretch,” says Cohen. "It looks like that over the next two weeks the PV will be near normal or slightly weaker than normal.” 

BBC News reporter Chris Baraniuk highlights MIT startup Alsym Energy, which is developing sodium-ion batteries. Drew Buckley, chief executive at ESS Tech, “points out that sodium ion batteries could help distribute renewable energy to data centers,” writes Baraniuk. “And those batteries should be cheaper to run than lithium-ion alternatives, since they are not expected to require as much cooling.”  

During Climate Week NYC, Evelyn Wang, MIT’s Vice President for Energy and Climate, emphasized the importance of utilizing AI to help tackle climate change, write Seth Borenstein and Jennifer McDermott for The Associated Press. Data centers adding to climate and water problems ‘is not forever,’ according to Wang, who told The Associated Press that data centers are about five years away from being water neutral and about a decade away from no longer adding to planet-warming emissions. 

A study by MIT researchers has found evidence that the first signs of ozone depletion appeared in 1957 in the upper tropical stratosphere, driven by carbon tetrachloride, an industrial chemical introduced in the 1930s and widely used as a dry-cleaning and degreasing agent, writes Gizmodo reporter Ellyn Lapointe. “This finding underscores the importance of long-term atmospheric monitoring so that we can fully understand how it responds to chemical pollution,” Lapointe notes.

Senior Research Scientist C. Adam Schlosser, deputy director of the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, speaks with Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe’s Camberville & Beyond newsletter about weather, climate and how warming temperatures could impact the Northeastern US. Schlosser explains that: “warmer air can carry more moisture, more vapor. So, imagine again a future for the Northeast where everything is risen by a few degrees. It's not just the daytime temperatures, but the nighttime temperatures. The amount of vapor in the air has a big impact on nighttime temperatures, and on hot, humid nights, your body's ability to cool is diminished.” 

Prof. Raymond Pierrehumbert and his colleagues have discovered an exoplanet orbiting a star 34 light-years from Earth that is "covered with a perpetual ocean of magma and ​enveloped by a noxious and fiercely hot sulfur-rich atmosphere," reports Will Dunham for Reuters. "The era of exoplanet discovery ⁠keeps showing us ​new kinds of worlds, indeed 'strange new worlds,' generally stranger than anything in 'Star Trek,'" says Pierrehumbert. “This offers all sorts of exciting opportunities to put together fundamental physics in very novel ways."

Prof. Christopher Knittel speaks with New York Times reporter Emmett Lindner about how the conflict with Iran has influenced gas prices in the United States. “When there’s a supply disruption in the Middle East, that raises prices for every barrel of oil in the world,” explains Knittel. “Those price increases then trickle down to products that use oil, gasoline being the most relevant one.”

Prof. Christopher Knittel speaks with Bloomberg reporter Stacey Vanek Smith about increased gas prices. “Gas is something we tend to buy on a weekly basis,” says Knittel. “But also, we see the price hundreds of times a day. Even if you’re not buying it, you see the price, so the salience of gas prices is like no other.” 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with USA Today reporter Doyle Rice about how changes in the polar vortex will impact March weather across the United States. “I would expect a milder period in the eastern US until close to the spring equinox," says Cohen. "Then I think eventually colder weather arrives to the eastern U.S. related to the polar vortex split in late March or early April that could hang around for a while."

Research scientist Judah Cohen served as a panelist for the Boston Globe’s “The Reshaping of New England’s Seasons: What’s Happening to Our Weather?” event, reports Ken Mahan for The Boston Globe. Cohen and his fellow panelists discussed New England weather, sharing insights and answering questions from community members.