Weather

MIT researchers have developed the Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) tool, which “uses machine learning to identify systematic bias in a model and make corrections” to improve weather forecasts, reports The Verge’s Justine Calma. “The researchers found that PBC improved the accuracy of a leading physics-based weather model by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for 98 percent of precipitation and 92 percent of temperature targets,” notes Calma. “The machine learning framework also doubled the accuracy of ECMWF’s new AI forecasting system in the study’s analysis.” 

Gizmodo’s Ellyn Lapointe spotlights the Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC) tool developed by MIT researchers to “correct systemic errors in forecast models and improve the accuracy of their subseasonal outlooks.” “Extreme weather has the largest impact on our society and improved forecasts of these events can yield large societal benefits,” says Research Scientist Judah Cohen. “Interestingly, previous bias correction schemes actually made forecasts of extreme weather worse, and our model showed clear improvement of extreme weather forecasts.”  

MIT researchers have developed an AI system “that not only minimizes forecasting errors, but learns from its inevitable mistakes through a method called postprocessing,” writes reporter Andrew Paul for Popular Science. “Their AI postprocessing integration blew the existing forecasting models out of the water,” notes Paul. “Such massive improvements could soon help the farmers and energy providers who already rely on subseasonal forecasts, but the benefits may even save lives.” 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks to USA Today’s Doyle Rice, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Janet Loehrke about the intensity of the polar vortex this year, and his predictions on what sort of weather the upcoming winter season will bring across the country. “The polar vortex is no longer record strong (signaling a milder winter) and it is actually a bit weaker than normal as it is undergoing a polar vortex stretch,” says Cohen. "It looks like that over the next two weeks the PV will be near normal or slightly weaker than normal.” 

For Smithsonian Magazine, writer Hal Sundt explains how alumnus and meteorologist Horace Byers spearheaded the Thunderstorm Project, a national initiative mapping the internal structure of thunderstorms to improve air travel safety towards the end of World War II. “The meteorologist R.H. Simpson (after whom the category-based Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is partially named), described Byers as ‘the balance wheel in the administration of one of the greatest meteorology programs the world has ever known,’” writes Sundt.

In a Gizmodo article, reporter Ellyn Lapointe features a new study, co-authored by Prof. Christopher Knittel and Prof. Catherine Wolfram, that reveals American households are spending an additional $400 to $900 per year due to extreme weather conditions. “U.S. households are experiencing the financial effects of climate change in ways that aren’t always obvious,” says Knittel. “These costs show up across different parts of people’s budgets, and over time they can become pretty significant.”

Time reporter Simmone Shah highlights a study co-authored by Prof. Christopher Knittel and Prof. Catherine Wolfram that reveals extreme weather caused by climate change is costing Americans an average of $400 and $900 a year. “Even if you don't live in tornado alley, you might be seeing your insurance rates go up to cover the cost for people who are in the more danger-prone areas,” says Wolfram.

Senior Research Scientist C. Adam Schlosser, deputy director of the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy, speaks with Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe’s Camberville & Beyond newsletter about weather, climate and how warming temperatures could impact the Northeastern US. Schlosser explains that: “warmer air can carry more moisture, more vapor. So, imagine again a future for the Northeast where everything is risen by a few degrees. It's not just the daytime temperatures, but the nighttime temperatures. The amount of vapor in the air has a big impact on nighttime temperatures, and on hot, humid nights, your body's ability to cool is diminished.” 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with USA Today reporter Doyle Rice about how changes in the polar vortex will impact March weather across the United States. “I would expect a milder period in the eastern US until close to the spring equinox," says Cohen. "Then I think eventually colder weather arrives to the eastern U.S. related to the polar vortex split in late March or early April that could hang around for a while."

Research scientist Judah Cohen served as a panelist for the Boston Globe’s “The Reshaping of New England’s Seasons: What’s Happening to Our Weather?” event, reports Ken Mahan for The Boston Globe. Cohen and his fellow panelists discussed New England weather, sharing insights and answering questions from community members. 

USA Today reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver spotlights Research Scientist Judah Cohen’s research studying how weather systems and climate patterns are related to the increase in Arctic blasts and deep freezes this winter. 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with New York Times reporter Eric Niiler about his research studying “how global warming might also be causing colder winters in the eastern United States.” Cohen says “It’s weird what’s going on now in the stratosphere. These stretching events happen every winter, but just how the pattern is stuck is really remarkable.” 

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with Boston Globe reporter Ken Mahan about how a disrupted polar vortex (PV) could impact weather in the United States in the coming weeks. “The PV has been doing its best Mr. Fantastic impression, stretching and compressing continuously,” allowing frigid air to escape southward, Cohen explains. “If we (New England) do receive colder weather, but not quite the cold we experienced in late January, again from this larger PV disruption, it will be either late February and early March.”  

Research Scientist Judah Cohen speaks with USA Today reporter Doyle Rice about how the polar vortex and cold Siberian air could impact weather across the U.S. in February. Cohen noted that some of the cold weather being felt on the East Coast of the U.S. is "coming from Siberia and that is contributing to the extremity of the cold since Siberia is the source of the coldest air of the Northern Hemisphere in winter.”

Postdoctoral Associate Fatima Husain speaks with National Geographic reporter Theo Nicitopoulos about the various theories used to explain how living creatures survived the Cryogenian era. “These surface settings could have enabled a diverse assemblage of life to persist and continue to evolve throughout the glaciations,” says Husain. “We keep learning more about how extreme the Cryogenian was… and that makes life persisting and diversifying dramatically after that, all the more amazing.”