A policy tool key to arresting global warming could potentially wreak havoc on the oceans if instituted with no restrictions, warn an MIT professor and colleagues in the October 12 issue of Science.
Carbon trading, a feature of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, would limit abiding countries' emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. A country that exceeds its limit could fulfill its commitment by purchasing "carbon credits" from a country that emits less than its quota.
Carbon credits could also, however, be purchased from commercial industries that have developed ways to remove carbon from the atmosphere. And therein lies the hitch, says Professor Sallie W. (Penny) Chisholm of MIT's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Department of Biology.
One potential technique for removing atmospheric carbon involves fertilizing the oceans. "Our objections are to commercialized ocean fertilization -- the scaled-up consequences of which could be very damaging to the global oceans," write Chisholm and coauthors Paul G. Falkowski of the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences and Rutgers University, and John J. Cullen of Dalhousie University in Canada.
Small scientific experiments over the last ten years have shown that fertilizing parts of the ocean increases the number of tiny organisms, or phytoplankton, that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as part of their normal growth. Some of those organisms fall to the bottom of the sea, or are eaten and fall to the bottom as fecal matter, essentially moving carbon out of the air and into the deep.
Entrepreneurs watching these developments have concluded that fertilizing large patches of ocean might therefore be profitable if carbon trading is instituted. "Proponents claim that ocean fertilization is an easily controlled, verifiable process that mimics nature; and that it is an environmentally benign, long-term solution to atmospheric CO2 accumulation," write Chisholm and colleagues.
"These claims are, quite simply, not true," they continue, refuting each argument in turn within the Science article. For example, ocean fertilization is not easily controlled. "A fertilized patch in turbulent ocean currents is not like a plot of land."
Chisholm is particularly critical of claims that ocean fertilization is environmentally benign. "What really surprises me is that they're ignoring the results of years of research on aquatic ecosystems," including the negative effects of nutrient enrichment in lakes and coastal waters.
She emphasizes that she and her colleagues are not against individual experiments in which ocean fertilization is used as a tool for studying the ocean's response to enrichment. Such experiments have already yielded "very exciting results that have contributed to our understanding of the role of the oceans in the global carbon cycle and in regulating climate." But "we are against the large-scale implementation of ocean fertilization as a carbon sequestration option," said Chisholm.
Commercial implementation of ocean fertilization techniques is not imminent, but interest is growing. About seven patents have been filed on different techniques, and at least three small companies have been established. Chisholm herself recently talked to a representative from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries about ocean fertilization. "So many large companies are watching with interest," she said.
Although Chisholm notes that a given company fertilizing a relatively small patch of water would not by itself change the ecology of the oceans, she is afraid of the "slippery slope" that would lead us down. "If it's profitable for one, it would be profitable for many, leading to exploitation and a classic tragedy of the commons."
Chisholm and colleagues write that "one simple way to avert this potential tragedy is to remove the profit incentive for manipulation of the ocean common. We suggest that ocean fertilization in the open seas, or territorial waters, should never become eligible for carbon credits."
In September 2001 Jagat Adhiya (MIT S.M. 2001) and Chisholm wrote a white paper, "Is Ocean Fertilization Worth Pursuing as a Carbon Sequestration Option?" (PDF file) about this topic for MIT's Center for Environmental Initiatives, now the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment.